1st → 2nd → 3rd → 4th → 5th+ Purchase
Toast POS, Jan 1 to date. Customers counted at each location where they ordered. Tracked corporate stores only. Food trucks shown separately because rotating event traffic is structurally one-time and not comparable to fixed stores.
| Location | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Jolla | 19,521 | 3,761 | 2,089 | 1,475 | 1,076 |
| Palo Alto | 4,174 | 694 | 292 | 169 | 121 |
| San Francisco | 7,839 | 969 | 352 | 191 | 113 |
| San Jose | 7,735 | 950 | 353 | 198 | 129 |
| Oakland | 1,707 | 183 | 55 | 25 | 15 |
| San Mateo | 6,803 | 671 | 231 | 123 | 76 |
| Tracked System | 47,779 | 7,228 | 3,372 | 2,181 | 1,530 |
| Location | 1 → 2 | 2 → 3 | 3 → 4 | 4 → 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Jolla | 19.3% | 55.5% | 70.6% | 72.9% |
| Palo Alto | 16.6% | 42.1% | 57.9% | 71.6% |
| San Francisco | 12.4% | 36.3% | 54.3% | 59.2% |
| San Jose | 12.3% | 37.2% | 56.1% | 65.2% |
| Oakland | 10.7% | 30.1% | 45.5% | 60.0% |
| San Mateo | 9.9% | 34.4% | 53.2% | 61.8% |
| Tracked System | 15.1% | 46.7% | 64.7% | 70.2% |
| Location | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th+ | 1 → 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Food Truck 2 | 9,477 | 659 | 162 | 62 | 30 | 7.0% |
| SF Food Truck 1 | 3,784 | 164 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 4.3% |
Trucks are structurally low-repeat (4 to 7% on 1 → 2) because they serve rotating events and street locations with mostly one-time foot traffic. Compare trucks to trucks, not to brick & mortar.
Every tracked store loses 80 to 90% of first-timers before a second purchase. Once a guest crosses the 3rd order, 45 to 73% keep coming back at every subsequent step. The entire retention game lives at visit two.
19.5K first-timers, 19.3% return for a second visit, and exceptional 55.5% / 70.6% / 73.0% on the 2 → 3, 3 → 4, and 4 → 5 steps. Acquiring and retaining better than anyone in the system.
16.6% first-repeat and 71.6% on 4 → 5 the smallest base in the corporate set but converts deeper than any other Bay store. Operation quality reads directly into the data.
6,803 first-timers and only 671 come back for a second visit. Same pattern flagged on stickiness. A targeted visit-two offer plus an ops audit is the highest-leverage retention play in the system.
Volume is there, the funnel leaks at step one. Closing the gap to La Jolla / PA on 1 → 2 would add roughly 500 to 600 second-time guests on the existing top of funnel.
First-party, exactly one lifetime POS order, contactable. Highest leverage at San Mateo, SF, and San Jose. A small lift on 1 → 2 here compounds through the rest of the funnel because the deeper steps already convert well.
Definitions: counts are distinct customers reaching each purchase number at that location, Toast POS only, Jan 1 to date. First-party orders only. 3PD and catering excluded. Step-conversion = customers at step N+1 divided by customers at step N. Tracked corporate stores only franchise locations are excluded.